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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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